InvestEd 2011 in San Diego

November 2010 Webinar: There IS a Time to Sell

Where Shall I Start My Projections?

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InvestEd 2011 in San Diego CA

May 13-15, 2011

Marriott Mission Valley Hotel

Crystal Balls Don’t Work. Education Does.

InvestEd 2011 offers two and one-half days of education that includes seventeen new sessions, hands-on help in the Computer Lab, lively discussions in the Friday and Saturday night Cyber Cafe, and five meals. Mary Ann Davis shares her knowledge of option selling strategies, Jerry Pillans discusses 401Ks and other tax-deferred accounts, and Brian White acquaints you with the preferred procedure. Crystal balls won’t show you the way, but listening to Saul Seinberg light your investment path with candlesticks may help you navigate the future.

Special options during the conference are the Newbie Program and the Leadership Training Program. The celebrated Newbie Program on Saturday and Sunday is designed for those new to investing and/or stock selection software. On Friday afternoon in the Leadership Training program, learn about using social media for your organization and identify useful tools that should be in your software toolbox. View the full weekend schedule and the session descriptions on the InvestEd 2011 website.

San Diego is a vacation destination where you can combine investing education and sightseeing. Visit the tourism page for ideas about where to go, what to see, and where to enjoy excellent dining. The $115 (plus tax) room rate in the InvestEd room block at the Marriott Mission Valley Hotel provides cost effective housing. Make your hotel reservations today.

The $369 holiday registration rate is available through December 31, 2010. Students with a student identification card pay $359. Refer others to InvestEd and receive a $25 referral rebate if they did not attend InvestEd 2010. You both must attend InvestEd 2011.

Share the InvestEd 2011 kiosk and flyer with your friends, family, and investing associates. Download them from the files area of the InvestEd-news web interface.

Education is a gift that keeps on giving. Share the wealth, build better futures, and enjoy a May weekend in San Diego at InvestEd 2011.

InvestEd Inc. Free Webinar

There IS a Time to Sell

Sunday, November 21, 2010, 9 PM -10:15 PM ET/6 PM -7:15 PM PT

Instructor: Mary Ann Davis

Topics: Toolkit management tools, price charts, active portfolio management, and sell stop orders

Register Free Now  Space is limited.

Would you like to learn what tools can assist you in making your sell decision? If so, this presentation is for you.

Mary Ann Davis turns the clock back to the year 2000 with examples of stocks that, based on the stock management guide and the portfolio review, were held when they should have been sold. Price charts illustrate price performance and how they can be used to confirm the recommendations from the Toolkit stock analysis software. Join Mary Ann as she takes you step-by-step through the process of selling.

Mary Ann, an InvestEd director and instructor, has a passion for teaching at local through national levels, including at AAII events. Mary Ann is co-leader of the InvestEd conference Cyber Cafe. She is a founding partner of the Ladies vs. Market Investment Club and was a member of the online CGAB Alumni Investment Club. A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, she also studied at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and at the New York Institute of Finance™ with Ralph Acampora. Mary Ann is a retired teacher and photographer.

Mary Ann will be teaching Option Selling Strategies (New!), Selling Covered Calls, and Selling Cash-Secured Puts at InvestEd 2011.

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Where Shall I Start My Projections?

By Brian Altschul

If you’re a Toolkit user, many options are available to help you complete your stock study analyses. One of the most confusing options is: Where should I start my sales and earnings projections: Last Annual Data, End of Trend Line, or Last Quarterly Data?

In order to use this feature, open Toolkit and go to the home page. You will need to go into the Preferences on the right-hand side of the menu bar at the top of the page. Select Stock Study from the left-hand list. Turn on Show Trend Line Options in the check box just under your initials as the Default Preparer. After you check the box, you will see three choices.

Last Annual Data will start your projections from the end of the previous year’s data. If the last year reported was 2009, it will begin the five-year projection from the end of 2009.

Using the Last Annual Data option seems like the obvious choice. In this example, the projections appear to follow the three reported quarters perfectly. However, the performance of the three quarters will not be taken into account if the Last Annual Data option is used.





End of Trend Line The Trend Line is the red line that is the average of the 10-year growth of sales and earnings.

Using the End of Trend Line option can be tricky. The trend line is the red line below the blue earnings line. The trend line can be well above or well below the current report. In this case the trend is well below the current earnings level. Using this option can result in your earnings projection being much lower or much higher than you would use with either of the other two options.






Last Quarterly Data will start your projections from the end of the last quarter reported. For example, if the last year reported was 2009 and three quarters of 2010 have been reported, the projection line will begin at the third quarter of 2010.

Using the Last Quarterly Data option seems like the least obvious choice. Visually it looks very odd. The projection line seems to hang on to nothing in particular. However, it actually is starting at the end of the most recent quarter. Then it is moved back to the last annual line, illustrated by the green line. This is done so that a full five years is used in the projection.





I prefer to use the Last Quarterly Data option since it will use all of the information currently available. The End of Trend Line option assumes that the trend will continue into the future. Both this option and the Last Annual Data option start from the end of the most recently completed fiscal year.

Since our projections are based on five years out, if we do not use the Last Quarterly Data option and some quarters have been reported into the next year, we will not get the full five years of projections. If three quarters of the current year have been reported, we will be projecting only four and one-quarter years. Using the Last Quarterly Data option allows for better or poorer performance in the current year to be taken into account when making your projections.

Note: The default will use the Last Annual Data. If you make a change in your preferences, it will NOT change your previously created stock studies. You will need to manually change those in the Visual Analysis box on page one of your stock study.

Brian Altschul is an InvestEd instructor and secretary of InvestEd Inc. He will discuss additional Toolkit tips when he teaches, The Whys of a Stock Study (New!) and Identifying Red Flags at InvestEd 2011. In addition, Brian will teach Stock Up - Veterans Share Their Secrets, Parts #1 and #2 in the general education sessions, and a Leadership Training session, Using Social Media to Promote Your Organization.

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